Labour support at lowest level since Thatcher's last election victoryJulian GloverWednesday October 25, 2006
The GuardianSupport for Labour has dropped to its lowest level in almost 20 years with the Conservatives opening up a potentially election-winning 10-point lead, according to a Guardian/ICM poll published today. Labour has the backing of only 29% of voters, equal to its lowest-ever level of support in a Guardian/ICM poll - recorded in May 1987, a month before Margaret Thatcher won a third term. The party's support has fallen 3 points since last month, despite Labour's successful annual conference in Manchester and a lack of public conflict over the succession to Tony Blair. The Conservatives have climbed three points, to 39%, with the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 22%.
Support for minor parties, growing in recent months, has dropped back 1 point to 9%. The Green party and the UK Independence party score 2% each.
The poll, carried out last weekend, follows David Cameron's attack on NHS cuts as well as the publication last week of a party report advocating tax cuts of £21bn.
The results suggest that campaigning on the NHS offers the Tories potential gains, with an overwhelming majority of voters believing that the record sums being spent on health by the government have largely being wasted. Only 14% of voters think the money invested since 1997 has been well spent, against 72% who agree that "a lot" has been used badly. Even 58% of Labour voters think the extra money has been misspent. As a result only 25% of voters think that the NHS has improved since Labour came to power in 1997, against 30% who think it has got worse and 39% who think Labour has made little difference.
On the one hand the NHS remains a cherished institution that voters trust to give them the best possible treatment when they fall sick. On the other, voters think that the service has got worse, not better, during Labour's decade in power and that much of the government's huge extra investment in healthcare has been wasted. Labour has more than doubled health spending since 1997 to almost £90bn a year but seems to be gaining little political credit for its efforts.
However, most people remain proud of Britain's standard of healthcare: 55% still think that the NHS is the envy of the world. People also trust it with their lives, with 60% agreeing that they would get excellent care if they were unwell. Only 30% think they would not. Trust in the NHS is strong among voters of all parties, and especially among the people most likely to need healthcare, older and poorer voters, with 73% of over-65s confident that they will be well looked after. True, voters are worried about catching infections such as MRSA in hospital, for instance, with only 35% sure that they will be safe from it if they have to be admitted. Most people, 51%, think they would be at risk.
But the public's personal experience of using NHS services is none the less overwhelmingly positive: 71% of people say that their family and friends have had a good experience.
But as the government moves ahead with contentious reforms which could see closures of well-loved hospitals, the poll's findings suggest Labour cannot take the NHS for granted as an electoral asset. Meanwhile, most people would choose to opt out of the state system if they could afford it: 67%, say they would pay to go private if they had the money, including 61% of Labour voters. Trust in the private sector is strong, too, when it comes to the NHS itself: 70% of all voters think that private companies should be allowed to care for NHS patients. That suggests there is backing for the government's reform programme, which has seen private organisations invited to compete for NHS work. Labour voters are even keener on this than the overall electorate, with 73% agreeing private firms should have a role in the NHS against only 22% who disagree.
The poll comes after other findings suggesting that Mr Cameron's honeymoon with voters may be over. Data published in the Times on Monday from a small sample of 242 voters, gave Gordon Brown a lead among swing voters. Even if today's Guardian/ICM result were repeated at a general election, the Conservatives would only end up as the largest party in a hung parliament, or hold only a narrow majority, since Labour gains most from the distribution of parliamentary seats across the country. Labour support remains strongest in the north of Britain, where it retains a lead among voters, and weakest among under 34s and middle-class voters, where it is in third place behind the Liberal Democrats.
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